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뱅크오브아메리카 전략가 "장기채 매수하라"... 트럼프 재정긴축 대비 4개 ETF 주목

Piero Cingari 2025-01-18 00:35:51
뱅크오브아메리카 전략가 "장기채 매수하라"... 트럼프 재정긴축 대비 4개 ETF 주목
뱅크오브아메리카의 마이클 하트넷 수석 투자전략가는 도널드 트럼프의 재정 규율 강화 가능성을 투자자들이 과소평가하고 있다며, 장기채와 금리 민감 섹터가 매력적인 투자처가 될 것이라고 전망했다.
하트넷 전략가는 금요일 발표한 대표 보고서 '플로우 쇼'에서 채권에 대해 강세 입장으로 전환하며, 최근 몇 개월간 급등한 금리가 투자 기회를 만들었다고 강조했다.
그는 "20년 만기 회사채 수익률이 현재 6.3%에 달해 연기금들이 주식 차익 실현분을 채권에 투자할 것"이라며 "장기채 매수를 추천한다"고 밝혔다.
하트넷 전략가는 아이쉐어즈 20년 이상 국채 ETF(나스닥:TLT)와 같은 장기채의 투자 논거가 강화되고 있다* ***** ** ** *** ***** *** ****** ** *** *** ***** *** *** **** *** ****

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이 기사는 AI로 번역되어 일부 오류가 있을 수 있습니다.

Investors may be underestimating Donald Trump‘s potential push for fiscal discipline, making long-term bonds and rate-sensitive sectors an attractive bet, according to Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett.

In his flagship ‘The Flow Show’ report published Friday, Hartnett shifted to a bullish stance on bonds, stressing that the yield spike seen in recent months has created an opportunity.

“20-year corporate bonds now yielding 6.3%, pension funds would be looking to park some of those gains in bonds,” he said, recommending investors “buy long duration bonds.”

Hartnett indicated the case for duration bonds ? as commonly tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) ? is strengthening as U.S. government spending slows, the Federal Reserve keeps a cautious stance on inflation, and yields approach peak levels.

Is The Bond Bear Market Peaking?

The past two years have been brutal for fixed-income investors.

Higher-for-longer interest rates and rising deficits crushed bond prices, and since the Federal Reserve's 100-basis-point interest rate cuts, bonds have remained the worst-performing asset class.

Yet Hartnett sees the tide turning.

Historically, rolling 10-year returns from U.S. Treasuries have never been negative over the past 90 years. The market has reached what he calls the “peak in ‘anything but bonds’ trade of the 2020s.”

The technical backdrop also suggests stabilization. The 30-year Treasury yield has hit a double top at 5%, a level Hartnett believes represents strong resistance.

If yields retreat toward 4%, a diversified low-risk bond portfolio?comprised of Treasuries, investment-grade debt, high-yield bonds, and emerging market credit?could generate 11%-12% annualized returns, Hartnett highlighted.

A higher-risk allocation, with greater exposure to junk bonds and preferred securities, could yield up to 15%.

Trump's Fiscal Shift

As Hartnett highlighted, the U.S. budget deficit has risen to $7.3 trillion, fueling a 50% surge in nominal GDP, with government spending contributing significantly to economic growth.

Yet, according to the expert with the Fed prioritizing inflation control and Trump likely pushing for spending cuts, deficits could shrink, reducing upward pressure on yields.

“We say Trump’s need for ‘smaller government’ = ‘twin peak’ in 5% bond yields,” Hartnett said.

Scott Bessent, Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, made it clear during his Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday that tackling government spending will be a top priority.

“We have a spending problem,” he said, emphasizing the need for significant reductions in government outlays.

Bessent indicated runaway spending as a key reason he joined the Trump campaign, signaling his commitment to aggressive fiscal tightening.

“One of the things that got me out from behind my desk and my quiet life in this campaign was the thought that this spending is out of control,” Bessent said.

The Bond Market's Attractive Risk-Reward Profile

At current levels, the bond market presents what Hartnett describes as a “very good” risk-reward profile.

A scenario where yields drop 100 basis points (1 percentage point) could generate strong returns, while even a rise in yields may not severely dent total performance.

With yields near 5%, the worst may be over for bonds, according to Hartnett’s calculations.

Portfolio TypeCurrent Yield (%)DurationConvexity1-Year Return (If Yields Drop 100bps)2-Year Return (If Yields Drop 100bps)1-Year Return (If Yields Rise 100bps)2-Year Return (If Yields Rise 100bps)
Low-risk bond portfolio5.7%6.51.112%17%-1.0%5%
High-risk bond portfolio7.5%7.00.915%22%0.4%8%
Source: Bank of America

Which Sector ETFs Stand To Benefit?

Investors looking to position for lower yields should consider rate-sensitive exchange-traded funds.

Hartnett's report highlights opportunities in:

  • SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB): Lower mortgage rates could revive housing demand.
  • Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU): Defensive, dividend-paying stocks tend to outperform in a falling rate environment.
  • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF): Banks benefit from a steepening yield curve and deregulation.
  • SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI): Growth stocks, including biotech, typically gain as borrowing costs decrease.

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